B264 Solution

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Solution to CyberTeaser B264

If you stick with your original choice, you win only if this choice was the right one (a one-in-three chance). However, if you switch and choose the other box, you win if the original choice was wrong (a two-in-three chance). Since you were twice as likely to be wrong as right in your initial pick, you should switch—this automatically doubles your chance of winning.*

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* If you answered that it doesn't matter if you stick or switch, you may have been led astray by memories of 50-50 propositions like coin tosses, where after a run of, say, 279 heads in a row, the next toss is just as likely to be heads as it is tails. Our problem, however, involves two choices, and here history does matter!

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